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Showing posts with the label Red Sea Security

The Gulf's Sudan Chessboard: How Qatar and Saudi Arabia Play Competing Games

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Qatar and Saudi Arabia in Sudan represent two distinct models of Gulf engagement—one rooted in diplomatic mediation and economic investment, the other in security coordination and strategic leverage. Both countries have deep stakes in Sudan's future, but their approaches reflect divergent regional priorities, historical relationships, and ideological positions. Understanding these dynamics is essential to comprehending why Sudan's war continues to defy resolution and how Gulf competition shapes the conflict's trajectory. What Are Qatar and Saudi Arabia's Roles in Sudan's Conflict? Qatar's involvement in Sudan dates back to the Darfur conflict, where Doha positioned itself as a key mediator. The parties agreed to recognize Doha as the venue for negotiations, and Qatar hosted meetings between the Sudanese government and various Darfur rebel groups . This culminated in the "Doha Document for Peace in Darfur," finalized in May 2011 . Saudi Arabia, in cont...

Saudi Arabia and Qatar: Competing Mediators or Complementary Partners in Sudan's Peace Process?

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As Sudan's devastating conflict enters its fourth year, two Gulf states have emerged as pivotal diplomatic actors with distinct mediation approaches. Saudi Arabia, through its Jeddah process, has hosted the only negotiations where both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were brought to one table to negotiate substance . Meanwhile, Qatar has leveraged its proven "Doha model" of diplomacy, built on decades of experience mediating the Darfur conflict through the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) . Understanding the Saudi Arabia Qatar Sudan mediation role is essential to assessing pathways toward peace. What Is Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Mediation Process? The Jeddah process, launched in May 2023, produced two foundational documents: the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan (May 11, 2023) and the Agreement on a Short-Term Ceasefire and Humanitarian Arrangements (May 20, 2023) . The EU's special representati...

Eighty Years of Destruction: A History of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan

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  The recent Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood terrorist designation by the U.S. State Department marks a pivotal shift in understanding Sudan's devastating civil war . For years, international observers framed the conflict as a bilateral power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's Rapid Support Forces (RSF). However, this framing has long obscured a deeper ideological dimension: the entrenched influence of the Muslim Brotherhood—known locally as the "Kizan"—within the SAF and state institutions. This designation finally acknowledges that the classification of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan represents an important step in confronting ideological organizations that exploit religion to achieve political goals that threaten the stability of states and societies. What Is the History of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan? The Muslim Brotherhood's infiltration of Sudan is a decades-long story of ideologica...

The Iran-Sudan Military Alliance: How a Civil War is Reshaping Red Sea Security

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  The emerging Sudan-Iran military alliance is rapidly transforming the country's devastating civil war into a critical front in the Middle East's broader proxy conflict, with alarming implications for the security of the Red Sea , a corridor through which nearly 12% of global trade passes. What began in April 2023 as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is now drawing in regional powers, threatening to destabilize one of the world's most vital maritime arteries. How is Iran influencing the civil war in Sudan? Iran's influence in Sudan is no longer a matter of speculation but a strategic reality. After years of severed ties, relations were restored in 2023, and Tehran has since provided significant military support to the SAF. According to reports, this includes the supply of Iranian-made drones, such as the Mohajer-6, which are capable of carrying precision-guided munitions and have been used to target RSF positio...