How the Iran Conflict May Fuel a New International Refugee Crisis

 

The escalating Iran conflict refugee crisis is rapidly becoming one of the most pressing humanitarian challenges of 2026. Since hostilities reignited on February 28, the region has witnessed over 734,700 people forcibly displaced, with daily returns of Afghans from Iran surging to 1,700 . While the world's attention focuses on military strikes and geopolitical ramifications, a quieter, more desperate human tragedy is unfolding at border crossings from Islam Qala to Torkham, threatening to reshape migration patterns across the Middle East and beyond.

Why Are Afghans Being Deported from Iran During the War?

The conflict has dramatically intensified what was already a troubling trend of Afghan deportations from Iran. Following the Twelve-Day War in June 2025, Iran expelled over 500,000 Afghans in just 16 days, using wartime nationalism to justify what human rights organizations call "collective punishment" . State media labelled Afghans as "traitors" and spies for Israel, weaponizing anti-Afghan sentiment to deflect domestic frustration over military setbacks and economic collapse . This scapegoating has continued into 2026, with deportations sweeping up both documented and undocumented Afghans indiscriminately, many of whom have lived in Iran for decades.

What Is the Impact of the Iran War on Afghan Refugees?

For Afghan refugees, the impact has been devastating. Families face "triple displacement"—first fleeing Afghanistan, then displaced again inside Iran due to conflict, and now returning to a homeland many have never known . Upon arrival in Afghanistan, they enter what UNHCR describes as "a spiral of precarity and uncertainty," joining a country where 64.9 percent of the population lives in multidimensional poverty and 11 million children already need humanitarian support . The returns are "orderly but freighted with tension and apprehension," according to UNHCR representative Arafat Jamal, who warns that the situation is "deceptively calm" but could worsen dramatically.

What Risks Do Children Face Returning to Afghanistan from Iran?

Children are bearing the heaviest burden of this crisis. UNICEF reports that approximately 60 percent of returning families include children, and at the peak of last year's returns, the agency supported more than 8,000 unaccompanied and separated children . These children face immediate protection risks including abduction and violence, along with malnutrition, disrupted education, and severe psychosocial distress . Dr. Tajudeen Oyewale, UNICEF Representative in Afghanistan, warns that "the impact of escalating conflict in the Middle East is creating immediate risks for children across borders," with mothers arriving at reception centres exhausted and overwhelmed, seeking basic information about what comes next.

Where Are Refugees Fleeing from Iran Going?

While initial displacement remains regional, the potential for onward movement toward Europe is significant. Turkey, already hosting millions of Syrian refugees, serves as the primary gateway to Europe, and EU officials have begun discussions with President Erdoğan about potential new influxes . Iraq shares a porous border with Iran and could see refugees moving into Iraqi Kurdistan, though its own fragile security limits absorption capacity . Pakistan has already received 160,000 returnees in 2026, though the Torkham crossing remains closed due to border tensions . The EU Asylum Agency warns that even 10 percent of Iran's 90 million population fleeing would create displacement "comparable to the largest refugee waves in recent decades".

How Does the Iran War Affect Europe's Migration Policies?

Europe is watching nervously. The EU's Pact on Migration and Asylum begins applying in 2026, just as regional instability threatens new arrivals . Unlike the Syrian crisis, which took four years to reach Europe, the time between regional displacement and onward movement could be shorter this time if neighbouring countries become overwhelmed or restrict entry . The European Commission reports no significant migration changes yet, but the EU Asylum Agency warns the situation is "extremely unstable" and that making assumptions would be irresponsible . European leaders have already discussed the issue at an emergency foreign ministers meeting, signalling deep concern about potential political fallout reminiscent of 2015.

How Many People Have Been Displaced by the Iran Conflict?

Current figures are alarming. UNHCR reports over 734,700 forcibly displaced persons across the region as of March 9, 2026 . So far in 2026, 110,000 Afghans have returned from Iran, with 1,700 daily returns since the conflict escalated . This follows 1.9 million returns from Iran in 2025 alone and over 559,000 deportations in 2024—an 18 percent increase from the previous year . These numbers represent individual human lives, families torn from homes, and children whose futures hang in the balance.

What Is the UN Doing to Help Refugees Affected by the Iran Crisis?

UN agencies are scrambling to respond with severely limited resources. UNHCR maintains border monitoring and protection services, operates helplines receiving over 7,500 calls weekly, and keeps emergency stockpiles ready for deployment . UNICEF is working to scale up nutrition screening, vaccination, primary healthcare, and child protection services at border points . However, funding is critically low—Afghanistan's Humanitarian Response Plan is only 10 percent funded, and supply chain disruptions mean life-saving therapeutic food may not reach malnourished children on time . Both agencies warn that additional support will be desperately needed if arrivals increase.

FAQs

Is Iran creating a new refugee crisis in the Middle East?

Yes, the escalation has already displaced over 734,700 people regionally, with Afghans in Iran facing mass deportations and internal displacement within Iran also reported . The EU warns the situation could trigger displacement of "unprecedented magnitude".

Why is Iran targeting Afghan migrants during the conflict?
Iranian authorities have used wartime nationalism to scapegoat Afghans, with state media labelling them "traitors" and accusing them of spying for Israel. This deflects domestic anger over military setbacks and economic crises.

Are Iranian citizens fleeing the country because of the war?
While large-scale Iranian exodus hasn't yet materialized, the potential is significant given Iran's 90 million population. The EU Asylum Agency warns that even partial destabilisation could generate major refugee movements.

How are neighbouring countries preparing for refugees from Iran?
Turkey is in discussions with the EU, Iraq faces limited capacity due to its own fragility, Pakistan deals with border closures, and Afghanistan struggles with existing humanitarian crises and underfunded aid operations.

What happens to Afghan refugees deported to Afghanistan?
Returnees face severe poverty, limited services, and protection risks. Women and girls encounter Taliban restrictions on education and public life, while former government officials risk reprisals.