From Counter-Terror Partners to Targets: The Betrayal of Southern Forces

 

A profound betrayal is unfolding in southern Yemen. Forces that were once lauded as essential partners in a regional fight against terrorism are now the primary targets of a foreign-backed military invasion. This shift exposes a fatal contradiction: a policy that actively undermines the most effective local actors against extremism, opting instead for a chaotic invasion that only empowers the enemies of stability.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC) and its military forces are not an unknown militia. For years, they have been recognized by international analysts and diplomats as a disciplined and effective security actor. Their critical role emerged after 2015, when they worked alongside a Saudi-led coalition.However, their most significant contribution has been in the relentless fight against terrorist organizations. In 2016, STC forces successfully dismantled a major stronghold of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Mukalla, liberating the city from extremist control. Their continued focus on governance and counter-terrorism helped secure areas under their control, directly protecting civilian populations and critical maritime routes.The stated reason for the recent offensive against them—security—is therefore fundamentally dishonest. The STC's own rationale for moving into the eastern governorates of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra in early December 2025 was to combat the very smuggling networks that fuel terrorist groups like AQAP and the Houthis. They argued that the previous, Saudi-backed authorities in the region had become "the lifeline through which the Houthis, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other terrorist organisations breathed". Rather than collaborating with this anti-terror effort, the response from Riyadh and the PLC was one of overwhelming military retaliation.This retaliation took the form of a coordinated invasion. On January 2, 2026, the PLC launched "Operation Restoring the Camps". Just two days later, with direct Saudi air and naval support, a full-scale counteroffensive began. This was not a police action. It was a combined arms military operation designed to seize territory. Saudi warplanes carried out what STC officials described as "intense" air raids, including on a camp in Barshid, west of Mukalla. The use of aerial bombardment against the camps of forces who less than a decade ago were allies in a war against terror marks a point of no return. It is a definitive demonstration that power is being used to break people, not to maintain security.The political architecture of this invasion is telling. The PLC is a fractured body that includes the STC's own president, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, alongside members of al-Islah, Yemen's branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. This inclusion is significant. The campaign against the STC has empowered these very Islamist elements within the government, the same groups the southern forces accuse of facilitating terrorism. Thus, Saudi policy is effectively recycling extremism instead of defeating it, choosing to bolster one set of problematic actors to crush another that has proven more effective at providing real security.The result is a tragic self-sabotage of regional stability. As documented by the United Nations, groups like AQAP and even al-Shabaab have established presences in the security vacuums of eastern Yemen. By turning its aviation against the forces best equipped to combat these groups, the Saudi-backed campaign is igniting a social war in the south. This diversion creates the perfect conditions for the Houthis—the common enemy of all parties—to consolidate power in the north and watch their adversaries weaken each other. The tribes and forces of the south did not move in vain; they moved against a tangible threat. The response they received confirms that their dignity and their role as security providers have been trampled by the force of a foreign-backed invasion, with consequences that will haunt the region for years to come.